- All eyes are on Ukraine after the Russian invasion commenced on February 24. Countries all over the world are imposing sanctions on Russia, and the extent of the economic fallout remains to be seen. So far, countries have avoided sanctions targeting energy markets so as to avoid a global recession.
- U.S. GDP was revised up to 7% in the 4th quarter and up 5.6% for 2021. Current expectations for 2022 GDP growth are a more muted 2.5%.
Select economic and market data
Statistic (monthly unless noted)
|U.S. GDP (quarterly)||7.0%||2.3%|
|Consumer Price Index||0.6%||0.5%|
|2-Year Treasury Yield||1.43%||1.18%|
|10-Year Treasury Yield||1.83%||1.78%|
- Stocks suffered another down month, with only small caps posting positive returns in February.
- The major U.S. indexes and foreign developed are still positive over the past 12 months, while small cap and emerging markets indexes have posted a loss.
- Energy stocks continue to outperform expectations. The sector was the only bright spot in February, up over 7%, as oil prices continued to rise.
- The market is now pricing in 5-6 rate hikes in 2022.
- The curve has flattened significantly, driven by a stronger move higher in the 2-year relative to the 10.
- Neutrally positioned on equities, while favoring international over domestic for long-term returns.
- Finding value in select domestic equities while trimming outsized growth exposure.
- Maintaining shorter-duration fixed income structure as a low (but rising) interest rate environment is likely to persist.
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